Normal Americans punished MAGA
Summary
Noah Smith argues that the 2026 US midterms were a referendum on Donald Trump, and that MAGA's crushing defeat exposed a central delusion: the belief in a hidden reservoir of shy Trump supporters who would rescue the party, as in 2016. Instead, polls, forecasts and prediction markets had called a Democratic victory for months, and the election-night surprise favoured Democrats, with even Trump's traditional base of white voters without a college degree abandoning the GOP in droves. Kansas, South Carolina and Iowa turned blue, and Texas went blue too, with Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa unseating Republican governor Greg Abbott and progressives winning statewide office. Smith traces the backlash to the cost of living: Trump was elected to tame inflation but raised taxes on almost everything Americans buy from overseas and raised gas prices by attacking Iran, plunged the US into an expensive Middle East quagmire, promoted Vladimir Putin's interests, and presided over corruption that voters now rank above grocery and gas prices as their top concern. His broader thesis is that normal, swing voters do exist in great numbers, and that pushing them hard enough with corruption, mismanagement and disdain for their daily struggles will eventually make them rise up and punish the incumbent. The warning runs both ways: Democrats, he says, risk a red wave in 2030 or 2034 if they misread the mandate and chase activist priorities such as Palestine over the cost of living, embark on a borrowing binge, try price controls, push billionaire taxes voters just rejected in California, or reopen large-scale illegal asylum admissions.
Highlights
The only possible interpretation of this huge wave election is that it was a referendum on Donald Trump.
It turns out that normal Americans do exist — in great numbers, in fact.
And most of all, Texas is blue.
Contrarian Viewpoints
- Smith's own warning that Democrats could face a red wave next time supports an alternative reading: the result may have been an anti-incumbent, cost-of-living vote rather than an endorsement of a progressive programme.
- His judgement that Trump will not challenge the verdict is presented as gut instinct, not evidence, and should not be read as a settled prediction.
Investment Implications
- Neutral on US equities (US Equities) as a divided government may limit major legislation but raise debt-limit and shutdown headline risk